Will anybody use Tesla’s robotaxis after they come to Austin? Most likely not

Tesla
is working furiously to affix the robotaxi market, and to nobody’s shock, the preliminary launch venue is slated to be Austin, Texas — house to the corporate’s international HQ. Talks with the Metropolis of Austin have been underway for months, and the automaker is planning to deploy a small fleet of

Model Y
s by the top of June or July, in line with CEO Elon Musk. Its Full Self-Driving (FSD) platform has additionally been mounting enhancements.

Here is the factor, although — whereas I am at present in Edmonton, I spent over a decade dwelling in Austin, full with a Texan spouse and baby to show it. Understanding the town, I’ve severe doubts about whether or not Tesla’s robotaxis will acquire any traction there, and never simply due to

FSD’s spotty track record
.

The unpopularity contest

Misjudging your viewers

Whereas it is sensible to launch in Austin from a logistical perspective, the truth is that Elon Musk is deeply unpopular with a number of locals, given his right-wing politics. Austin is a famously liberal metropolis, thanks partially to establishments like its music scene and the College of Texas at Austin. There is a notable LGBTQ+ district on 4th Avenue, and considered one of its best-known occasions is Eeyore’s Birthday, a free pageant filled with issues like drum circles and wild costumes. There are conservative Austinites — notably within the Republican-dominated Capitol constructing — however within the 2024 Presidential elections, over 68% of Travis County voted for Kamala Harris.

Many locals are employed by Tesla, to make certain, however even a few of them dislike their controversial boss. And the Tesla showroom in The Area has been the positioning of a number of protests attacking Musk’s affiliation with US President Donald Trump, to not point out different figures within the far-right.

I am anticipating a number of Austinites to not solely ignore a Tesla robotaxi service, however actively boycott it. Teams could broaden the present protests, and there is even the chance of vandalism and sabotage, given different well-publicized incidents across the US. Till Musk is compelled out of Tesla — assuming that ever occurs — there is a distinct chance that the one prospects utilizing his robotaxis will likely be vacationers, Republicans, and apolitical sorts.

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Dealing with the competitors (and the town)

Penned in by Alphabet and MoPac

Waymo

Even when Austin had been as solidly Republican as Galveston, Tesla would nonetheless be dealing with one other main impediment: Waymo. Alphabet’s robotaxi service has been totally operational in Austin (by way of Uber) since March 2025, and was working in different cities previous to that. It isn’t solely firmly established in metropolis limits, however within the robotaxi business usually, with a commanding lead over different US rivals like Zoox.

Tesla does have a bonus in that it has been capable of check FSD in a variety of situations, due to a mixture of its personal information and that from personal automobile house owners. It stays to be seen, nonetheless, if that may translate into the robotaxi world, a lot much less beat Waymo’s personal observe file. Tesla has been conducting some advance testing on Austin streets, so it is not less than conscious that it could actually’t hit the bottom operating.

On prime that, Austin itself is liable to be an impediment. There is a cause Waymo solely operates in a small space from Parker Lane within the south to Hyde Park within the north — getting wherever else is difficult with out taking highways like MoPac (Loop 1), I35, and 183, and robotaxi companies usually keep away from highways in mild of the dangers concerned. Tesla will in all probability need to function below the identical situations, intensifying its competitors with Waymo and limiting what number of passengers it could actually entice. Large suburban areas like Spherical Rock and Pflugerville (each of which I’ve lived in) will likely be out of attain, and main company workplaces belonging to Apple and Dell will likely be inaccessible.

I am not even assured Tesla’s FSD tech will be capable of sort out Austin terrain (reliably). Having pushed these streets myself, I do know that there are many awkward intersections, by no means thoughts making an attempt to navigate them throughout development, rush hour, or the annual SXSW pageant that pulls in 1000’s of individuals and blocks off downtown. Austinites are already complaining about how Waymo automobiles carry out — I can solely think about the nightmare of a newcomer multiplying the variety of robotaxis on the street. All robotaxis are likely to drive overly cautiously, typically impeding site visitors, so there’s the potential for some severe site visitors jams, notably understanding that taxis from one firm do not have a approach of speaking with these from one other. A Waymo and a Mannequin Y stopped on a street like sixth or Congress would generate chaos.

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Is the state of affairs actually that dire?

Some last ideas

Tesla

Most likely not from Tesla’s perspective. It is planning to begin with simply 10 to twenty automobiles, and there is nearly definitely a marketplace for that. It may encounter hassle scaling up, relying on public opinion and the progress of FSD, but I doubt Musk goes to surrender on testing considered one of his favourite tasks in his yard. The person is dedicated to self-driving automobiles of all types, so I anticipate that nothing wanting a severe accident will power him to take robotaxis off the streets. Even then, it’d simply be a short lived setback — Uber finally resumed autonomous testing after the death of Elaine Herzberg in March 2018.

There may be elements I have not thought-about. Possibly some liberal Austinites will likely be prepared to disregard Musk’s politics for the sake of a trip house from sixth Avenue — perhaps there are extra conservatives downtown than I am conscious of. In any occasion, we will discover out the reality very shortly, and that would decide how Tesla’s long-term autonomous plans go.

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